Randallstown, Maryland 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

914
FXUS61 KLWX 300135
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
935 PM EDT Thu May 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of disturbances and fronts will continue to cross the
area through Saturday, leading to periods of showers and
thunderstorms along with below normal temperatures. High pressure
will slowly build over the area Sunday into early next week,
with an eventual warming trend toward midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Weak impulses of energy along a diffuse front from Washington
D.C. to Nashville, TN will move northeast along the front the
remainder of the night. Isolated showers and perhaps a rumble of
thunder will develop in spots across the central Shenandoah
Valley and Virginia Piedmont and toward southern Maryland. A
brief downpour, occasional lightning strike, or wind gust over
40 mph could occur with this activity. As these impulses of
energy move away by later tonight and shower fade to isolated
ones, some low stratus clouds or patchy fog could form since
dewpoints are higher and residual rainfall is present. Low
temperatures will be milder with temperatures bottoming in the
middle 50s in the mountains to the middle 60s along the
Chesapeake Bay.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The diffuse front will remain across the region Friday as a
strong upper level low approaches from the west. An area of low
pressure will develop along the front, strengthening as it
moves across the area and to the northeast Friday evening and
night. There is increasing concern for flooding or flash
flooding during this period. As a matter of fact, a Flash Flood
Watch has been issued for a large portion of our region from
along the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge to and including the
Chesapeake Bay from 7pm Friday through 4am Friday night.

Fast-moving convection with heavy rain will cross the area.
Multiple showers and strong to possibly severe thunderstorms
will be the main features throughout the period. Some training
of showers and thunderstorms could occur in many spots.
Nonetheless, the combination of frontal forcing, a strong upper
low, a jet streak moving in from the west, plenty of low level
moisture will result in possible flash flooding due to heavy
rainfall.

Total rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches with isolated amounts of 4
inches or more will be the flavor across the Flash Flood Watch
area later Friday afternoon through much of Friday night. Wind
shear will be supportive of organized convection (linear
segments or supercells), but the bulk of the severe threat will
likely occur near and south of the front. Large hail and
damaging winds are the main threat. The tornado threat seems
lower given weak low level winds, but one can`t be ruled out
near the frontal zone.

Highs on Friday are expected to be in the mid to upper 70s,
with a few spots possibly reaching 80F. The chance for rain may
linger well into Friday night as the low only slowly pulls away.

Previous discussion...
The upper trough aloft lingers over the area, then digs south
over the lower Mid-Atlantic on Saturday. After a brief break,
more showers and embedded thunderstorms will likely develop over
our area for most of the day Saturday. With cold temperatures
aloft and shear of 20-30kt, some marginal hail and gusty winds
could occur with some of the thunderstorms. Abundant cloud cover
keeps highs cooler in the upper 60s to lower 70s. WNW winds
will also be gusty. A cold front sweeps through Saturday night,
finally bringing an end to an active stretch of weather. This
frontal passage does bring a late season surge of cold air as
temps drop to the 40s to low 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper troughing will remain in place across much of the Eastern US
on Sunday, but by then the trough axis will be located just off to
our east. As drier air advects in on northwesterly flow and large
scale subsidence starts to increase in the wake of the trough axis,
dry conditions are expected. Temperatures will remain below normal,
with highs generally in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

The upper trough will continue to slowly depart off toward the north
and east early next week as high pressure starts to build in at the
surface. Upper ridging will eventually build in by the middle of the
week. Dry conditions are expected during this time period, along
with gradually warming temperatures. Temperatures should rebound
back to near normal (highs in the upper 70s/low 80s) by Tuesday,
with above normal temperatures (high in the mid 80s) forecast by
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered showers and isolated thunder may occur at CHO or
perhaps near DCA overnight. MVFR to IFR stratus may redevelop
tonight, but in some areas it may be fog instead. Confidence is
low, but LIFR conditions would be possible in fog. Winds remain
light through tonight.

Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon look to be active
in terms of showers and thunderstorms, with perhaps a break
sometime late Friday night into Saturday morning. That`s when
local fog or stratus may develop again. Otherwise winds are
light until low pressure strengthens to the northeast Friday
night. WNW winds gusting 20-25 kt will develop Friday night
into Saturday.

VFR conditions are expected on both Sunday and Monday. Winds will be
out of the west on Sunday, and may gust to around 20 knots. Winds
will be lighter out of the northwest on Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds should remain 10 kt or less through Friday as a weak front
remains near the area. Low pressure approaches Friday afternoon
and moves to the northeast Friday night. Ahead of it, strong to
severe thunderstorms with heavy rain are possible Friday
afternoon into Friday evening. In its wake, Small Craft
Advisories will likely be needed Friday night through Saturday
night. Another round of strong thunderstorms is possible
Saturday afternoon.

SCA conditions appear possible within westerly flow on Sunday. Sub-
SCA level northwesterly winds are expected on Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Watch is in effect for the possibility of Flash Flooding
from Friday evening at 7pm through Friday night at 4am along the
Blue Ridge and east to the Chesapeake Bay. This is issued due
to the possibility of excessive rainfall occurring with multiple
rounds of showers, strong to severe thunderstorms, and the
training of showers and thunderstorms. A wavy slow-moving front
with a vigorous upper level low approaching from the west could
ignite multiple rounds of convection Friday into Friday night.
Storm totals could reach 2 to 3 inches, locally nearing 4
inches in spots. Additional water runoff over saturated grounds
could result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other
low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor
drainage and urban areas.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tide levels are forecast to remain elevated this evening
through Saturday as mostly south winds prevail. At this time
there is no explicit minor flooding forecast, though a few spots
could just reach minor flooding during the higher diurnal high
tide. Most locations will reach Action Stage at high tide. Winds
turn offshore late Saturday behind a cold front, with water
levels dropping through the weekend.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Flood Watch from Friday evening through late Friday night for
     DCZ001.
MD...Flood Watch from Friday evening through late Friday night for
     MDZ004>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
VA...Flood Watch from Friday evening through late Friday night for
     VAZ036>040-050-051-053>057-501-502-505-506-526-527.
WV...None.
MARINE...Flood Watch from Friday evening through late Friday night for
     ANZ530.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS/KLW
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...ADS/KLW/KJP
MARINE...ADS/KLW/KJP
HYDROLOGY...KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KLW